Nuclear’s Role: Fulfilling Vietnam’s Energy Ambition?
Vietnam’s revised Power Development Plan VIII (PDP8) targets a dramatic expansion of capacity—from ~80 GW today to between 183 GW and 236 GW by 2030. To achieve this, the government has reintegrated nuclear power, aiming for 4–6.4 GW operational by 2030–35, and up to 8 GW by 2050.
This shift is driven by several strong motivations:
– Baseload Stability: Unlike renewables, nuclear plants offer round‑the‑clock generation unaffected by weather. PDP8 relies on nuclear to underpin grid stability even as solar and wind scale up.
– Energy Security & Investment Security: Restarting the Ninh Thuận nuclear project (4 GW) by 2030–2035, with Russia’s Rosatom and discussions with other partners, provides diversification beyond coal, gas, and weather‑dependent systems.
– Commitment to Net-Zero: Vietnam seeks to reach net-zero by 2050. Nuclear, with near-zero operational emissions, helps reduce reliance on fossil fuels—especially coal, which still dominates at ~46.9% of generation .
Renewables & Battery Storage: The Other Half of the Puzzle
PDP8 also sharply ups solar targets—from ~12.8 GW currently to 46–73 GW by 2030—and onshore wind to 26–38 GW.
Importantly, it mandates battery storage integration at least 10% of solar capacity to balance supply and demand.
Can Nuclear Alone Meet Vietnam’s Green Goals?
– Timeline Constraints: Vietnam suspended nuclear plans in 2016 due to cost and safety concerns. With expectations to commission by 2030–2035, this already tight timeline leaves little room for delays.
– High Costs & Financing Challenges: Initial projects like Ninh Thuận 1–2 are estimated at USD 18 billion. Vietnam is negotiating loans and turn-key deals—yet still reliant on foreign partners and concessional finance.
– Technical Capacity & Safety: Building a nuclear ecosystem takes time: Vietnam needs thousands of trained professionals, robust waste handling, and safety infrastructure. Public trust post-Fukushima and Bataan issues remains a hurdle.
A Balanced Energy Mix: Nuclear + Renewables
The evidence suggests Vietnam needs a hybrid model:
Nuclear provides low-carbon, steady baseload—but cannot scale fast enough alone.
Renewables (solar, wind) combined with storage offer flexibility, quicker deployment, and lower marginal cost.
By 2030, Vietnam’s green electricity could be ~30–36% non-hydro renewables, with nuclear contributing ~2–3%—rising steadily into the 2040s.
Government & Multilateral Support
Vietnam’s National Assembly and PM Phạm Minh Chinh have greenlit nuclear and renewable boosts, backing reforms in pricing, land acquisition, and policy frameworks .
International financing—through partners like Russia’s Rosatom, and potentially Japan, South Korea, France, US—is underway. The AP flagged growing regional interest and support for nuclear tech though funding remains cautious .
Final Assessment: Nuclear Alone Is Not Enough
Nuclear power is essential—but insufficient alone to decarbonize Vietnam’s grid by 2030–2050.
Challenges include timeline delays, high costs, regulatory buildup, public acceptance, and technical capacity.
In contrast, renewables + storage offer speed, modularity, and cost-efficiency, and are already being rolled out at scale.
Conclusion: A Diversified Clean Energy Future
Nuclear power will anchor Vietnam’s grid—but the green electricity revolution demands nuclear and renewables working together:
Nuclear delivers stable, low-carbon baseload, while
Solar, wind, and batteries provide flexibility and rapid scale, and
Policy reforms and financing enable both paths.
The PDP8 framework is clear: nuclear returns—balanced with an aggressive renewable rollout and storage deployment—to meet rising demand and net-zero targets. In this power mix, diversity isn’t just an asset—it’s a necessity.
